COMMENTARY | Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won all three political contests Tuesday, again muddying the still cloudy waters -- but what had appeared to be clearing after two consecutive Mitt Romney wins in Florida and Nevada -- of Republican electorate preference.
Although it has long been established Republican voters have been reluctant to back Romney, the latest round of losses cannot sit well with the national poll front-runner, according to Real Clear Politics tracking. It would appear those voters, when taken on a state-by-state basis, are still willing to show that reluctance.
As CNN pointed out, the three victories suggest a long, drawn-out primary season for the remaining candidates. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said much the same to ABC News at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington on Thursday, noting the nominee could be chosen at the Republican National Convention in August.
Given that he did not fare that well in the trio of contests, results in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado cannot sit well with Newt Gingrich, either. Swelling support for Santorum means a drop in support for the former Speaker of the House.
What Santorum's rise portends is that those further to the right of the moderate right, those that typically favor hawkish Gingrich and other like candidates have found a new and improved conservative to champion their platform. He is a candidate without excess political baggage, promotes the values of conservatism well and has not had two affairs on wives that were allegedly ill when he separated from them.
But it is in the extremes, his almost rabid attacks on anything resembling abortion rights, his lockstep approach to dealing with the enemies of Israel his anti-gay rhetoric, his wealthy-protecting deficit-increasing tax plan and his insistence that his interpretation of Christian beliefs hold sway in any and all arguments that get him into trouble.
And just as it has been for all the other major candidates, from Michele Bachmann to Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Ron Paul to Gingrich to Romney, it has been Santorum's words that have hurt him worst such as his ill-chosen comments about not giving "other people's money to black people to make their lives better" (as captured by CBS News). It did not help when he subsequently attempted to say he never said what he said, which was his defense on Fox News' "The O'Reilly Factor."
So what should be expected in the coming months? More negative ads from all candidates and Super PACs (because they have been effective). A closer race for Romney from Santorum (especially in the more social conservative and religious South, like Tennessee, where Santorum leads in the latest poll, according to The Hill). More opposition to a Gingrich nomination and calls for him to drop out to support Santorum, whom he calls a friend. A possible move to install Santorum as the vice presidential nominee if his bid becomes strong enough.
But when it is all said and done, unless there is a complete collapse of the Republican establishment and Romney becomes involved in one or more debilitating scandals, the former Massachusetts governor will undoubtedly win the GOP's nomination. Despite the electorate's obvious reluctance to support Romney wholeheartedly because of Romneycare and his obsessive flip-flopping on issues, he remains the best chance for Republicans to pull the moderates and independents in a national election. In short, Santorum's extremism will not win over a national electorate.
So what does Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado ultimately tell us? Basically, the same thing national polls have been saying all along. The GOP voters are generally unhappy with their candidates, they're not thrilled with Romney as a their final choice and that in a series of state contests of divided local politics that drag on through to August, they will see Romney and the GOP itself come to understand that all too well.
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